基于面板ARDL模型的居民消费与政府消费关系分析
Analysis of the Relationship between Household Consumption and Government Consumption Based on Panel ARDL Model
投稿时间:2020-09-01  修订日期:2020-09-01
DOI:
中文关键词: 政府消费  居民消费 长期均衡  短期波动
英文关键词: government  consumption, household  consumption, long-term  equilibrium, short-term  fluctuation
基金项目:中南民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目”工业化与城市环境效率协调发展保障机制研究”(CSY19005)。 王彦 康海媛
作者单位E-mail
李先玲 中南民族大学 经济学院 278067891@qq.com 
王彦 中南民族大学 经济学院  
康海媛 中南民族大学 经济学院  
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中文摘要:
      为缓解2020年新冠疫情对经济的冲击,中国各地纷纷出台财政刺激政策。这些政策能否提振消费,增加国内有效需求,不仅是各界关注的焦点,也是直接影响中国经济复苏进程。本文基于永久收入消费理论模型,利用中国30个省份的面板数据,构建面板ARDL模型分析政府消费对居民消费的长期和短期影响关系及程度。研究发现:一是从全国层面来看,政府消费与居民消费在短期有互补关系,而在长期呈替代关系。二是政府消费对居民消费的影响存在地区差异性,其中西部地区政府消费与居民消费在长期和短期都为互补关系,中部地区政府消费与居民消费有长期互补关系,而东部地区政府消费与居民消费则为长期替代关系。因此,中国各地方政府需结合自身特点,制订财政政策,激发居民消费潜力。
英文摘要:
      In order to alleviate the impact of the Novel coronavirus epidemic on economy in 2020, fiscal policies have been introduced to across China. Whether these policies can boost consumption and increase effective domestic demand is not only the focus of attention, but also directly affects the process of economic recovery in China. Based on the permanent income consumption theoretical model, this paper uses panel data from 30 provinces in China and constructs a panel ARDL model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between government consumption and household consumption. We found that: First, from a national perspective, there is a short-term complementary and a long-term substitute effect between government consumption and household consumption. Second, there are regional differences in the relationship between government consumption and household consumption. The long-term and short-term relationship between government consumption and household consumption are both complementary in the western region. However, the long-term relationship is complementary in the central region and substitution in the eastern region. Therefore, local governments in China should formulate fiscal policies based on their regional characteristics to stimulate the potential household consumption.
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